Can a balanced market be on the horizon?
After 90 days of residential inventory increases in the Metro Seattle area, we are beginning to see signs that a balanced market may be closer than we thought. While median sales price in October dropped a modest 2%, most Seattle neighborhoods have seen more aggressive reductions in August and September. October is the first month we have seen sales numbers increase and inventory numbers decrease at the same time. This may be an indication that prices and inventory are stabilizing. If you have questions about this quickly adapting market and the details that could benefit you, I welcome an opportunity to discuss.
METRO SEATTLE Real Estate Market Update
Metro Seattle residential inventory is DOWN 5% following 90 days of significant increases.
NWMLS Data: OCTOBER 2018 statistics with % change from SEPTEMBER 2018
MEDIAN SALES PRICE: $760,000 -2%
NUMBER OF HOMES FOR SALE: 1303 -5%
NUMBER OF SOLD LISTINGS: 606 +18%
NUMBER OF PENDING SALES: 603 +6%
NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS: 862 -25%
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET: 25 +9%
Seattle’s Real Estate market is slowing
The Seattle Real Estate market has shown signs of a slowdown for the third consecutive month. Inventories continue to increase and almost all Seattle neighborhoods showed price declines in August. Buyers and sellers are both watching the market closely for short term indicators. This balancing of our real estate market is healthy. However change can be uncomfortable, having a trusted advisor available to navigate you through the facts will benefit you significantly. There are many reasons our market will continue to lead the nation, I welcome the opportunity to assist.
Both median sales price and average price per square foot have declined for 3 consecutive months and for the first time in more than 4 years.
NWMLS Data: AUGUST 2018 statistics with % change from JULY 2018
MEDIAN SALES PRICE: $760,000 -5%
NUMBER OF HOMES FOR SALE: 1,012 +3%
NUMBER OF SOLD LISTINGS: 638 -13%
NUMBER OF PENDING SALES: 583 -8%
NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS: 827 -11%
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET: 17 -6%
2018 Q1 vs. Q2 shows a significant change in metro Seattle prices. With an increase of only 4%, this is a stark contrast from
the double-digit jumps observed over the last 4 years. The most compelling data to support the shift, centers around a 97% influx in
inventory and 57% increase in new listings. The last time inventory AND new listings grew in tandem was more than 4 years ago. With
more homes to choose from and moderating sale prices, an uptick in buyer activity is expected.
Via Matthew Gardner, Windermere Economist, find him on FB
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Posted November 9 2016, 3:30 PM PST by Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist, Windermere Real Estate
The American people have spoken and they have elected Donald J. Trump as the 45th president of the United States. Change was clearly demanded, and change is what we will have.
The election was a shock for many, especially on the West Coast where we have not been overly affected by the long-term loss in US manufacturing or stagnant wage growth of the past decade. But the votes are in and a new era is ahead of us. So, what does this mean for the housing market?
First and foremost I would say that we should all take a deep breath. In a similar fashion to the UK’s “Brexit”, there will be a “whiplash” effect, as was seen in overnight trading across the globe. However, at least in the US, equity markets have calmed as they start to take a closer look at what a Trump presidency will mean.
On a macro level, I would start by stating that political rhetoric and hyperbole do not necessarily translate into policy. That is the most important message that I want to get across. I consider it highly unlikely that many of the statements regarding trade protectionism will actually go into effect. It will be very important for President Trump to tone down his platform on renegotiating trade agreements and imposing tariffs on China. I also deem it highly unlikely that a 1,000-mile wall will actually get built.
It is crucial that some of the more inflammatory statements that President-Elect Trump has made be toned down or markets will react negatively. However, what is of greater concern to me is that neither candidate really approached questions regarding housing with any granularity. There was little-to-no-discussion regarding housing finance reform, so I will be watching this topic very closely over the coming months.
As far as the housing market is concerned, it is really too early to make any definitive comment. That said, Trump ran on a platform of deregulation and this could actually bode well for real estate. It might allow banks the freedom to lend more, which in turn, could further energize the market as more buyers may qualify for home loans.
Concerns over rising interest rates may also be overstated. As history tells us, during times of uncertainty we tend to put more money into bonds. If this holds true, then we may see a longer-than-expected period of below-average rates. Today’s uptick in bond yields is likely just temporary.
Proposed infrastructure spending could boost employment and wages, which again, would be a positive for housing markets. Furthermore, easing land use regulations has the potential to begin addressing the problem of housing affordability across many of our nation’s housing markets – specifically on the West Coast.
Economies do not like uncertainty. In the near-term we may see a temporary lull in the US economy, as well as the housing market, as we analyze what a Trump presidency really means. But at the present time, I do not see any substantive cause for panic in the housing sector.
We are a resilient nation, and as long as we continue to have checks-and balances, I have confidence that we will endure any period of uncertainty and come out stronger.
Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has over 25 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.